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EXHIBIT I-6ADEMAND ESTIMATE - SCALEORANGE COUNTY2017 THROUGH 2022I. Demographics Based Demand (Appendix B1)II. Employment Based Demand (Appendix B2)Orange County Santa Ana CMAUnits DemandedRent % of % of Share of % of Share of5-YrRange Num. Bld. Dem. Num. Bld. Dem.Orange County Num. Bld. Dem. Orange County Geography2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 AverageUnder $1,200468 ---54 ------66 ------ Orange County8,561 4,514 2,871 629 1,7733,670$1,200 - $1,600201 5%39 13% 19%34 8%17% Santa Ana856 451 287 63 177367$1,600 - $2,300275 7%55 18% 20%66 15%24% Capture of Orange County10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%$2,300 - $2,500462 12%59 19% 13%45 10%10% CMA856 451 287 63 177367$2,500 - $3,1001,122 30%101 33%9%155 34%14% Capture of Orange County10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%$3,100 - $3,700500 13%40 13%8%53 12%11%$3,700 - $4,400577 15%29 9%5%56 12%10%$4,400 and Over 862 23%24 8%3%75 17%9%Total4,466 ---401 ---9%548 ---12%Buildable Demand 3,798 100%308 100%8%449 100%12%Average Rent Demanded: $2,994$3,344III. Historical Market ScaleSanta AnaCMAMetricOrange CountyNum.Capture of Orange CountyNum.Capture of Orange CountySourceHouseholdsExhibit I-3Total - 20171,059,778 77,4367% 112,71011%Annual Growth - '17-'227,3242644%6649%Renters (% Rent x Growth)3,0101395%34311%Renters w/ Incomes >$50K234,291 17,0897% 28,84512%Apartment CompletionsExhibit I-520162,8652649%94233%20153,26300%00%20143,4233009% 1,03630%5-Yr3,1931134%44414%10-Yr3,099913%60920%15-Yr2,741783%44216%IV. TCG Concluded Demand (considers I, II, III above)Santa AnaCMAGeography:Orange CountyNum.Capture of Orange CountyNum.Capture of Orange CountyTCG Demand3,7502637%48813%8%15%10%34%12%12%17%13%18%19%33%13%9%8%5%7%12%30%13%15%23%0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%$1,200-$1,600$1,600-$2,300$2,300-$2,500$2,500-$3,100$3,100-$3,700$3,700-$4,400$4,400-and OverShare of New Apartment Demand by Rent RangeOrange CountySanta AnaCMAConsidering demographics based demand, employment based demand, and historical market scale, TCG's concluded annualdemand for rental units is 488 units in the CMA annually.17590.00 Macro: Dem-SclThe Concord Group2-264
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