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APPENDIX BI
<br />DEMAND MODEL- DEMOGRAPHIC BASED
<br />ORANGE COUNTY
<br />2017 THROUGH 2O22
<br />Percent
<br />2017 Households
<br />2017-2022 Annual
<br />Growth
<br />T/O
<br />%
<br />Obs.
<br />(2)
<br />9a
<br />Ina. Iucome to Affordable (2) 'L (4)
<br />New
<br />New
<br />Range
<br />Bear (1)
<br />Rent
<br />Households
<br />Rent (3)
<br />Renters
<br />T/O
<br />Dem.
<br />Obs,
<br />Demand
<br />HHs
<br />Rent (3)
<br />Renters
<br />Demand
<br />Orange Country
<br />Under $35,000
<br />40%
<br />Undcr $1,200
<br />225,972
<br />64%
<br />143,847
<br />65%
<br />93,501
<br />0.5%
<br />468
<br />-1,158
<br />69%
<br />0
<br />468
<br />$35,W0-$50,600
<br />38%
<br />$1,200 - $1,6W
<br />10,552
<br />5&%
<br />61,876
<br />65%
<br />40,219
<br />0.5%
<br />201
<br />-130
<br />61%
<br />0
<br />201
<br />$50,W0-$75,W0
<br />36%
<br />$1,60-$2,3W
<br />165,912
<br />49/
<br />81,675
<br />65%
<br />53,089
<br />0.5%
<br />265
<br />18
<br />54%
<br />10
<br />275
<br />$75,W0-$1W,000
<br />30/
<br />$2,300-$2,500
<br />134,645
<br />42%
<br />56,302
<br />65%
<br />36,596
<br />0.5%
<br />183
<br />596
<br />47%
<br />279
<br />462
<br />$100,WO - $150,OW
<br />25%
<br />$2,500-$3,100
<br />189,892
<br />31%
<br />58,973
<br />65%
<br />38,332
<br />0.5%
<br />192
<br />2,580
<br />36%
<br />930
<br />1,122
<br />$150,00-$2W,W0
<br />22%
<br />$3,100-$3,700
<br />99,557
<br />161/6
<br />15,901
<br />65%
<br />10,335
<br />0.5%
<br />52
<br />2,138
<br />21%
<br />448
<br />SW
<br />$200,000 - $250,000
<br />21%
<br />$3,700 - $4,400
<br />46,272
<br />16%
<br />7,390
<br />65%
<br />LSM
<br />0.5%
<br />24
<br />2,637
<br />21%
<br />553
<br />577
<br />$250,OW and Ova
<br />20%
<br />$4,400 and Ova
<br />87,976
<br />16%
<br />14,051
<br />65%
<br />9,133
<br />0.5%
<br />46
<br />3,894
<br />21%
<br />817
<br />862
<br />Taal
<br />1,059,778
<br />42%
<br />440,014
<br />65%
<br />286,009
<br />1,430
<br />10,574
<br />29%
<br />3,036
<br />4,466
<br />Buildable Demand
<br />833,806
<br />36%
<br />296,167
<br />192,508
<br />963
<br />11,732
<br />26%
<br />3,036
<br />3,999
<br />Santa Ana
<br />Under $35,000
<br />40%
<br />Under $1200
<br />23,003
<br />73%
<br />16,680
<br />65%
<br />10,842
<br />0.5%
<br />54
<br />-61
<br />78%
<br />0
<br />54
<br />$35,OW - $50,0,30
<br />38%
<br />$1,200 - $1,600
<br />11,995
<br />66%
<br />7,877
<br />65%
<br />5,120
<br />0.5%
<br />26
<br />18
<br />71%
<br />13
<br />39
<br />$50,000 - $75,000
<br />36%
<br />$1,600 - $2,300
<br />15,624
<br />52%
<br />8,151
<br />65%
<br />5,298
<br />U%
<br />26
<br />50
<br />57%
<br />29
<br />55
<br />$75,000 - $100,000
<br />301/6
<br />$2,300-$2,500
<br />10,361
<br />43%
<br />4,415
<br />65%
<br />2,870
<br />0.5%
<br />14
<br />93
<br />48%
<br />44
<br />59
<br />$10,O0 - $150,W0
<br />25%
<br />$2,500 - $3,1W
<br />10268
<br />30%
<br />3,052
<br />65%
<br />1,984
<br />0.5%
<br />10
<br />262
<br />35%
<br />91
<br />101
<br />$150,0M-$2W,000
<br />221/6
<br />$3,100-$3,700
<br />3,594
<br />24%
<br />855
<br />65%
<br />556
<br />0.5%
<br />3
<br />130
<br />29%
<br />37
<br />40
<br />$2W,OW - $250,000
<br />21%
<br />$3,700 - $4,40D
<br />1.210
<br />24%
<br />288
<br />65%
<br />187
<br />0.5%
<br />1
<br />96
<br />29%
<br />28
<br />29
<br />$250,OW and Over
<br />20°/
<br />$4,400 and Oer
<br />1,381
<br />24%
<br />328
<br />65%
<br />213
<br />OS%
<br />1
<br />81
<br />29%
<br />23
<br />24
<br />Taal
<br />77,436
<br />5,[%
<br />41,646
<br />65%
<br />27,070
<br />135
<br />669
<br />40%
<br />265
<br />401
<br />16,228
<br />81
<br />730
<br />36%
<br />265
<br />346
<br />Buildable Dernand 54,433 461/6 2L,966
<br />Caphne of C..ty
<br />7%
<br />8%
<br />8%
<br />6%
<br />9%
<br />9%
<br />CMA
<br />Under $35,000
<br />40%
<br />Under $1200
<br />27,444
<br />74%
<br />20,274
<br />65%
<br />13,178
<br />0.5%
<br />66
<br />-73
<br />79%
<br />0
<br />66
<br />$35,0M-$50,W0
<br />38%
<br />$1200-$1,600
<br />13,492
<br />65%
<br />8,745
<br />65%
<br />5,684
<br />0.5%
<br />28
<br />8
<br />7016
<br />5
<br />34
<br />$50,OW - $75,W0
<br />36%
<br />$1,600 - $2,30D
<br />19,023
<br />58%
<br />11,09
<br />65%
<br />7,214
<br />0.5%
<br />36
<br />47
<br />63%
<br />30
<br />66
<br />$75,OW-$100,W0
<br />30°/
<br />$2,300 - $2,500
<br />15231
<br />461/6
<br />7,009
<br />65%
<br />4,556
<br />0.5%
<br />23
<br />44
<br />51%
<br />22
<br />45
<br />$1W,0W-$150,0W
<br />25%
<br />$2,500 - $3,100
<br />IU46
<br />38%
<br />6,881
<br />65%
<br />4,473
<br />0.5%
<br />22
<br />311
<br />43%
<br />132
<br />155
<br />$150,OW - $200,OW
<br />22%
<br />$3,100 - $3,700
<br />8,637
<br />2V16
<br />1,737
<br />65%
<br />1,129
<br />0.5%
<br />6
<br />187
<br />25%
<br />47
<br />53
<br />$2W,OW - $250,OW
<br />21%
<br />$3,700 - $L,4W
<br />3,776
<br />2(p4
<br />759
<br />65%
<br />494
<br />0.5%
<br />2
<br />212
<br />25%
<br />53
<br />56
<br />$250,OW and Ovcr
<br />2T16
<br />$4,400 and Ovcr
<br />6,761
<br />2T16
<br />1,360
<br />65%
<br />884
<br />0.5%
<br />4
<br />280
<br />25%
<br />70
<br />75
<br />Taal
<br />112,710
<br />51%
<br />57,863
<br />65%
<br />37,611
<br />188
<br />1,016
<br />35%
<br />360
<br />548
<br />Buildable Demand
<br />85266
<br />L[%
<br />37,590
<br />24,433
<br />122
<br />1,089
<br />33%
<br />360
<br />482
<br />Capture of C..ty 10% 13% 13% 9% 12% 12%
<br />Sow
<br />(1) TCG estimate, varies by income based on input from American Community FacTinder (US Census, 2015 5-Year Estimates)
<br />(2) Spotlight estimate - see Exhibit 14A
<br />(3) American Community FactFinder (variable B25118), Exhibit I4B; assumes new households entering mwket have a higher rentenhip rate (5 percentage points higher)
<br />(4) TCG estimate
<br />17590.00 Maw.: Dent-D
<br />11/12/17
<br />THE CONCORD GROUP
<br />48
<br />60A-59
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