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10/28/2018 <br />IPaC: Explore Location <br />Each green bar represents the bird's relative probability of presence in the 10km grid cell(s) your <br />project overlaps during a particular week of the year. (A year is represented as 12 4-week months.) <br />A taller bar indicates a higher probability of species presence. The survey effort (see below) can be <br />used to establish a level of confidence in the presence score. One can have higher confidence in the <br />presence score if the corresponding survey effort is also high. <br />How is the probability of presence score calculated? The calculation is done in three steps: <br />1. The probability of presence for each week is calculated as the number of survey events in the <br />week where the species was detected divided by the total number of survey events for that <br />week. For example, if in week 12 there were 20 survey events and the Spotted Towhee was <br />found in 5 of them, the probability of presence of the Spotted Towhee in week 12 is 0.25. <br />2. To properly present the pattern of presence across the year, the relative probability of presence <br />is calculated. This is the probability of presence divided by the maximum probability of presence <br />across all weeks. For example, imagine the probability of presence in week 20 for the Spotted <br />Towhee is 0.05, and that the probability of presence at week 12 (0.25) is the maximum of any <br />week of the year. The relative probability of presence on week 12 is 0.25/0.25 = 1; at week 20 it is <br />0.05/0.25 = 0.2. <br />3. The relative probability of presence calculated in the previous step undergoes a statistical <br />conversion so that all possible values fall between 0 and 10, inclusive. This is the probability of <br />presence score. <br />To see a bar's probability of presence score, simply hover your mouse cursor over the bar. <br />Breeding Season( ) 1k *_0 <br />Yellow bars denote a very liberal estimate of the time -frame inside which the bird breeds across its <br />entire range. If there are no yellow bars shown for a bird, it does not breed in your project area. <br />Survey Effort (1) <br />Vertical black lines superimposed on probability of presence bars indicate the number of surveys <br />performed for that species in the 10km grid cell(s) your project area overlaps. The number of <br />surveys is expressed as a range, for example, 33 to 64 surveys. <br />To see a bar's survey effort range, simply hover your mouse cursor over the bar. <br />No Data (—) <br />A week is marked as having no data if there were no survey events for that week. <br />Survey Timeframe <br />Surveys from only the last 10 years are used in order to ensure delivery of currently relevant <br />information. The exception to this is areas off the Atlantic coast, where bird returns are based on all <br />years of available data, since data in these areas is currently much more sparse. <br />probability of presence breeding season I survey effort — no data <br />SPECIES ]AN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC <br />Hummingbird I �11 fill 1111 fill 11111111 111— '111 1111 i111 1111 1111 <br />BCC Rangewide <br />(CON) (This is a Bird <br />of Conservation <br />....................................... <br />Concern (BCC) <br />throughout its range <br />in the continental <br />........................................... <br />USA and Alaska.) <br />......................................... <br />https://ecos.fws.gov/ipac/location/OXNVSL07SNCZFKG7ZPEDUGHHEQ/resources 6/11 <br />