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Orange County households and employment are expected to be major drivers of demand for residential uses at the
<br />Site, while retail demand is expected to be driven more by local growth.
<br />Table 3: Projected Household Growth
<br />Projected Household Growth
<br />2012
<br />2020
<br />2035
<br />2040
<br />202040 Growth
<br />Irvine
<br />81,835
<br />109,488
<br />122,088
<br />123,364
<br />13%
<br />Santa Ana
<br />73,261
<br />74,886
<br />75,471
<br />75,831
<br />1%
<br />Tustin
<br />25,568
<br />27,234
<br />27,778
<br />27,940
<br />3%
<br />Orange County
<br />999,361
<br />1,073,174
<br />1,136,745
<br />1,153,713
<br />8%
<br />Source: SCAG, AECOM
<br />The proposed unit mix of the Project includes 228 studios, 574 1-bedroom, 283 2-bedroom units and 15 3-bedroom
<br />units, which suggests orientation towards singles and young families that differ significantly in demographic features
<br />from the relatively large average Santa Ana household size of approximately 4.4 members per household (accordinc
<br />to US Census Bureau ACS 5-year estimates).
<br />Table 4: Projected Employment Growth
<br />Projected Employment Growth
<br />2012
<br />2020
<br />2035
<br />2040
<br />2020-40 Growth
<br />Irvine
<br />224,435
<br />280,649
<br />313,960
<br />320,033
<br />14%
<br />Santa Ana
<br />154,800
<br />160,604
<br />165,159
<br />165,975
<br />3%
<br />Tustin
<br />37,616
<br />51,818
<br />64,599
<br />66,425
<br />28%
<br />Orange County
<br />1,526,227
<br />1,730,085
<br />1,870,025
<br />1,898,685
<br />10%
<br />Source: SCAG, AECOM
<br />Employment in the City of Santa Ana is projected to grow at just 3% overall between 2020 and 2040. During the
<br />same time period SCAG estimates Orange County will see a 14% increase in overall employment while growth in
<br />Irvine and Tustin is estimated to be 10% and 28% respectively over the same period. Demand for industrial, flex or
<br />other commercial uses at the Site will result from this wider growth, and the significant industrial/flex/office cluster in
<br />Dyer South and the neighboring districts is potentially positioned to capture a portion of this growth.
<br />Market Trends
<br />While demand for residential and industrial uses is expected to draw on regional growth primarily from Orange
<br />County, detailed characteristics of the retail market potential of the Site is expected to be more reflective of trends in
<br />the immediate market area, or approximately a 2-mile radius around the Site. The 2-mile radius encompasses the
<br />entirety of the Dyer South and Tustin Legacy districts, approximately 2/3 of the Irvine Business Complex, and the
<br />cluster of industrial land uses in southeastern Santa Ana. Trends such as vacancy rates, average rents, and inventory
<br />growth in the 2-mile radius of the various proposed land -uses offer insights that could determine the development
<br />feasibility of the Project and the Industrial Prototype. Figure 3 shows the geographical context of the 2-mile radius.
<br />75C-634
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