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Supportable on -site retail demand is estimated based on a reasonable Project capture rate of resident, worker, and
<br />hotel guest expenditures within both a''/,mile radius and 2-mile radius. Higher capture rates are assumed within the
<br />'/,mile radius as a result of it being walk accessible. There are approximately 3.4 million SF of retail space within a 2-
<br />mile radius of the Project, including a variety of destination, neighborhood and convenience options, and
<br />approximately 75,000 SF in the current development pipeline. AECOM estimated on -site supportable retail demand
<br />for the Project based on characteristics of households, employees, and hotel guests under current conditions, and at
<br />buildout of land uses currently in the pipeline in the 2-mile radius surrounding the Project, which includes the Tustin
<br />Specific Plan. Buildout estimates include stable occupancy of residential, commercial, and industrial land uses for all
<br />known projects currently proposed and under construction. Capture rates for retail space in the Project are a
<br />reasonable estimate based on current and future competitive supply. The following tables detail findings (Figures in
<br />the tables are rounded and may not sum). Assumptions and details of data sources follow.
<br />Table 11: Retail Expenditures - Households
<br />Estimated Bowery Capture of Household Retail Expenditures
<br />1/2 Mile Radius
<br />2 Mile Radius'
<br />Total
<br />Current BuildouC*
<br />Current Buildout**
<br />Current Buildout**
<br />Housing Units
<br />0 2,248
<br />22,922 23,434
<br />22,922 25,682
<br />Households(95%occupancy)
<br />0 2,136
<br />21,776 23,434
<br />21,776 25770
<br />On -Site
<br />0 1,027
<br />0 0
<br />0 1,027
<br />Expenditure Site Capture
<br />0 7.5%
<br />0.0% 0.0%
<br />0.0% 0.0%
<br />Off -site
<br />0 1,221
<br />22,922 23,434
<br />22,922 24,594
<br />Site -Ca Lure %
<br />0 7.5%
<br />2.5% 2.5%
<br />2.5% 2.5%
<br />Median HH Income
<br />0 $70,000
<br />$70,000 $70,000
<br />$70,000 $70,006
<br />HH Retail Expenditures***
<br />0 $21,000
<br />$21,000 $21,000
<br />$21,000 $21,000
<br />Total Estimatetl HH Retail Ependitures
<br />0 $45,000,000
<br />115,000,000 $490,002,849
<br />$455,334,069 $534,658,245
<br />Total Estimated HH Expentlitures Capture
<br />0 $3,430,000
<br />$11,380,000 $12,250,000
<br />$11,380,000 $15,680,000
<br />'2 Mile Ratlius is excl us iw of 12 Mle Radius to aw id double counting. Numbers are round ad and may not sum.
<br />"Assumes stable occupan cy of dwelling units (95%) in The Heritage, Bowery, and all projects in the known current pipeline
<br />"'BLS asssumes 30% ofineidian income isspent on all retail categories, site -capture rate adjusted for probable retail type
<br />Source: ESRI, BLS, Coster California DOF, AECOM
<br />AECOM estimates that existing households within the 2-mile radius generate approximately $11.4 million of total
<br />expenditures under current conditions and $15.6 million that could be captured by the Project at buildout of uses in
<br />the pipeline. These expenditures are based on ESRI estimates of the median household income in the 2-mile radius
<br />($70,000) and the proportion of that income that is spent of retail purchases of all types (30%).AECOM then
<br />estimated the capture rates for those living on -site, within a''% mile radius, and within a.2-mile radius based on
<br />reasonable assumptions of spending at retail establishments that is likely to occupy the space as detailed in the
<br />Project's development program.
<br />Table 12: Retail Expenditures - Employees
<br />Estimated BoweryCapture of Employee Retail Expenditures
<br />1/2 Mile Radius
<br />2 Mile Radius'
<br />Total
<br />Current BuildouC*
<br />Current Buildout**
<br />Current Buildout**
<br />Employees
<br />7,285 10,097
<br />99,828 103,803
<br />107,113 113,899
<br />On -site
<br />0 304
<br />0 0
<br />0 304
<br />Annual Expenditures"'
<br />$4,500 $4,500
<br />$4,500 $4,500
<br />$4,500 $4,500
<br />Site Capture
<br />10% 10%
<br />0% 0%
<br />0% 0%
<br />Offaite
<br />7,285 9,793
<br />99,828 103,803
<br />107,113 113,595
<br />Annual Expenditures"'
<br />$4,500 4,500
<br />$4,500 4,500
<br />$4,500 4,500
<br />Site Capture
<br />7.5% 7.5%
<br />2.5% 2.5%
<br />2.5% 2.5%
<br />Total Estimated Employee Retail Expenditures
<br />$32,782,500 $45,434,548
<br />$449,223,840 $467,111,369
<br />$482,006,340 $512,545,917
<br />Total Estimated Employee Expentlitures Capture
<br />1 $2,460,000 $3,441,0001
<br />$11,230,000 $11,678,0001
<br />$13,690,000 $15,120,000
<br />'2 Mile Radius is exclusive of 12 Vile Radius to avoid double counting. Numbers are rounded and maynot sum.
<br />"Assumes stable occupancy of com m erciallndustrial space in The Heritage, Bowery, Flight and all projects in the known current pipeline using
<br />Employee/Square Foot industrystandards byland use type
<br />"'Based on ICSC data for average workdas endin for office and retail workers transportation, grocerystores and warehouse clubs
<br />Source: ESRI, BLS, LEHD, Coster, =,, AECOM
<br />A similar approach was utilized to estimate demand from employees. AECOM estimates that employee demand could
<br />generate approximately $13.7 million of total expenditures under current conditions and $15.1 million at buildout that
<br />could be captured by Project retail at buildout of uses in the pipeline.
<br />The US Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer -Household Dynamics (LEND) estimates that there are 7,300 and
<br />100,000 workers respectively within a''/ -mile and 2-mile radius of the project. Employment sectors include a wide
<br />variety of manufacturing, professional and technical services, retail, and others. This was then combined with
<br />75C-645
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