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City of Santa Ana <br />Pension Obligation Bonds <br />Scenario 2 - Base Case <br />Amounts in $0005 <br />Simulation Analysis <br />Assumptions <br />Expected Annual Return 7.000% <br />Annual Volatility 12.000% <br />Results <br />Probability of Success <br />Average Presrnt Valuc Bcncfit <br />Percentiles <br />PS <br />1125 <br />PS0 <br />P7S <br />P9S <br />rno u <br /><amri <br />nro n <br />011 ❑ <br />I ou <br />(isc� of <br />86.10% <br />209,034.346 Discounted at Actuarial Discount Rate <br />(56,493802) (5% of outcomes less than) <br />45,546.592 (25% of outcomes less than) <br />149,668.678 (Median) <br />29S,852.997 (25% of outrnmes greater That)) <br />668,146.338 (51Y. of outcomes greater than) <br />"IPAuIA w! I M,(ORpI fll o Nv vv 6[ m I l li <br />Base Case Stress Test 1 Stress Test 2 Stress Test 3 <br />20% in First Year, <br />7%Annual Returns 7%After 6%Annual Returns 5%Annual Returns <br />PV Benefit <br />210,433.520 210,433.520 <br />210,433.520 <br />210,433.S20 <br />PV futwe UALs due to Act Losses <br />- (160,030373) <br />(73,798.6SS) <br />(13D,933294) <br />Net PV Benefit <br />210,433.520 50,403.147 <br />136,634.865 <br />79,500.226 <br />Net PV Benefit I% of Par Amount) <br />32.4% 7.8% <br />21.1% <br />12.3% <br />City Council <br />23 — 167 <br />5/18/2021 <br />BofA Securities - Preliminary Analysis 3/10/2021 Page 14 of 18 <br />