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Santa Ana 2020 Urban Water Management Plan <br />arcadis.com <br />7-9 <br />receive imported water from MET via connections to MET's regional distribution system. All imported <br />water supplies are assumed available to the City from existing water transmission facilities, as per MET’s <br />2020 UWMP. The demand and supplies listed in Table 7-2 also include local groundwater supplies that <br />are available to the City through OCWD by an assumed BPP of 85%, per Section 6.3.4. <br />Table 7-2: Retail: Normal Year Supply and Demand Comparison <br />DWR Submittal Table 7-2 Retail: Normal Year Supply and Demand Comparison <br />2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 <br />Supply totals (AF) 33,882 34,395 34,130 33,838 33,827 <br />Demand totals (AF) 33,882 34,395 34,130 33,838 33,827 <br />Difference (AF) 0 0 0 0 0 <br />NOTES: <br />This table compares the projected demand and supply volumes determined in Sections <br />4.3.2 and 6.1, respectively. <br />7.3.2 Single Dry Year Reliability <br />A single dry year is defined as a single year of minimal to no rainfall within a period where average <br />precipitation is expected to occur. The water demand forecasting model developed for the Demand <br />Forecast TM (described in Section 4.3) isolated the impacts that weather and future climate can have on <br />water demand through the use of a statistical model. The impacts of hot/dry weather condition are <br />reflected as a percentage increase in water demands from the normal year condition (average of FY <br />2017-18 and FY 2018-19). For a single dry year condition (FY 2013-14), the model projects a six percent <br />increase in demand for the OC Basin area where the City’s service area is located (CDM Smith, 2021). <br />Detailed information of the model is included in Appendix E. <br />The City has documented that it is 100 percent reliable for single dry year demands from 2025 through <br />2045 with a demand increase of 6% from normal demand with significant reserves held by MET, local <br />groundwater supplies, and conservation. A comparison between the supply and the demand in a single <br />dry year is shown in (Table 7-3). For simplicity, the table shows supply to balance the modeled demand in <br />the table. However, based on the purchase agreement the City has with MET (Section 6.2), the City is <br />contractually able to purchase more water from MET, should the need arise.