Item 27 - Water Supply Assessment for Cabrillo Town Center Project

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Santa Ana 2020 Urban Water Management Plan arcadis.com 6-9 Table 6-3: MET SWP Program Capabilities Year Average Annual Delta Exports (MAF) Average Annual Table A Deliveries (MAF) 2005 2.96 2.82 2013 2.61 2.55 2019 2.52 2.41 Percent Change*-14.8% -14.3% *Percent change is between the years 2019 and 2005. Ongoing regulatory restrictions, such as those imposed by the Biops on the effects of SWP and the CVP operations on certain marine life, also contribute to the challenge of determining the SWP’s water delivery reliability. In dry, below-normal conditions, MET has increased the supplies delivered through the California Aqueduct by developing flexible CVP/SWP storage and transfer programs. The goal of the storage/transfer programs is to develop additional dry-year supplies that can be conveyed through the available Harvey O. Banks pumping plant capacity to maximize deliveries through the California Aqueduct during dry hydrologic conditions and regulatory restrictions. In addition, SWRCB has set water quality objectives that must be met by the SWP including minimum Delta outflows, limits on SWP and CVP Delta exports, and maximum allowable salinity level. The following factors affect the ability to estimate existing and future water delivery reliability: Water availability at the source: Availability can be highly variable and depends on the amount and timing of rain and snow that fall in any given year. Generally, during a single-dry year or two, surface and groundwater storage can supply most water deliveries, but multiple-dry years can result in critically low water reserves. Fisheries issues can also restrict the operations of the export pumps even when water supplies are available. Water rights with priority over the SWP: Water users with prior water rights are assigned higher priority in DWR’s modeling of the SWP’s water delivery reliability, even ahead of SWP Table A water. Climate change: Mean temperatures are predicted to vary more significantly than previously expected. This change in climate is anticipated to bring warmer winter storms that result in less snowfall at lower elevations, reducing total snowpack. From historical data, DWR projects that by 2050, the Sierra snowpack will be reduced from its historical average by 25 to 40%. Increased precipitation as rain could result in a larger number of “rain-on-snow” events, causing snow to melt earlier in the year and over fewer days than historically, affecting the availability of water for pumping by the SWP during summer. Furthermore, water quality may be adversely affected due to the anticipated increase in wildfires. Rising sea levels may result in potential pumping cutbacks on the SWP and CVP. Regulatory restrictions on SWP Delta exports: The Biops protect special-status species such as delta smelt and spring- and winter-run Chinook salmon and imposed substantial constraints on