Item 18 - Appeal Application Nos. 2023-02 and 2023-03 for Cabrillo Town Center project

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This means the Project's emissions were calculated as if the Project was constructed with project design features to reduce GHG emissions that are not required by state or local code and with several regulatory measures adopted in furtherance of AB 32. While the AB 32 Scoping Plan's cumulative statewide objectives were not intended to serve as the basis for project -level assessments, this analysis finds that its Project Without Reduction Features comparison based on the Scoping Plan is appropriate, because the Project would contribute to statewide GHG emissions reduction goals. Specifically, the Project's mixed -use nature and location in an existing urban setting provide opportunities to reduce transportation - related emissions. First, it would capture vehicle travel on -site that would have normally been destined for off -site locations. This produces substantial reductions in the amount of vehicle trips and VMT that no longer are made. Second, it would eliminate many vehicle trips, because travel to and from the Project Site could be captured by public transit and active transportation instead. Finally, it would attract existing trips on the street network that would divert to the proposed development. Post-2030 Analysis Recent studies show that the state's existing and proposed regulatory framework will put the state on a pathway to reduce its GHG emissions level to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, and to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 if additional appropriate reduction measures are adopted.76 Even though these studies did not provide an exact regulatory and technological roadmap to achieve the 2030 and 2050 goals, they demonstrated that various combinations of policies could allow the statewide emissions level to remain very low through 2050, suggesting that the combination of new technologies and other regulations not analyzed in the studies could allow the state to meet the 2050 target. After the findings of these studies, SIB 32 was passed on September 8, 2016, and would require the state board to ensure that statewide GHG emissions are reduced to 40 percent below the 1990 level by 2030. As discussed above, the new plan, outlined in SIB 32, involves increasing renewable energy use, imposing tighter limits on the carbon content of gasoline and diesel fuel, putting more electric cars on the road, improving energy efficiency, and curbing emissions from key industries. As discussed above, SCAG's 2020-2045 RTP/SCS establishes a regulatory framework for achieving GHG reductions from the land use and transportation sectors pursuant to SB 375 and 76 Energy and Environmental Economics (E3). "Summary of the California State Agencies' PATHWAYS Project: Long-term Greenhouse Gas Reduction Scenarios" (April 2015); Greenblatt, Jeffrey, Energy Policy, "Modeling California Impacts on Greenhouse Gas Emissions" (Vol. 78, pp. 158-172). The California Air Resources Board, California Energy Commission, California Public Utilities Commission, and the California Independent System Operator engaged E3 to evaluate the feasibility and cost of a range of potential 2030 targets along the way to the state's goal of reducing GHG emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050. With input from the agencies, E3 developed scenarios that explore the potential pace at which emission reductions can be achieved, as well as the mix of technologies and practices deployed. E3 conducted the analysis using its California PATHWAYS model. Enhanced specifically for this study, the model encompasses the entire California economy with detailed representations of the buildings, industry, transportation, and electricity sectors. Cabrillo Town Center PAGE 56 18 — 1021 City of Santa Ana 10/3/20 2023