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2025 URBAN WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN <br /> MAY 2026/FINAL DRAFT/CAROLLO <br /> impacts. DVL, along with other local reservoirs, can store a 6-to-1 2-monthsupply of emergency water <br /> (MET, 2025). <br /> 7.3 Water Service Reliability Assessment <br /> This section assesses the reliability of Santa Ana's water service to its customers.This is completed by <br /> comparing the projected long-term water demand (Chapter 4)to the projected water supply sources <br /> available to Santa Ana (Chapter 6) in five-year increments, for a normal water year, a single dry water year, <br /> and a drought lasting five consecutive water years. <br /> P.J.I `4urrrtiai tear Reliability <br /> In 2025, MWDOC and OCWD in collaboration with Orange County retail agencies, developed water <br /> demand forecast models for participating individual retail water agencies in Orange County, as described <br /> in detail in Chapter 4.This 25-year demand forecast uses statistical models to account for demographic, <br /> socioeconomic, conservation, and weather variables (MWDOC, 2025). For normal year reliability, the <br /> demand forecast represents average weather conditions. <br /> Santa Ana is 100 percent reliable for normal year demands from 2025 through 2050. Santa Ana receives <br /> imported water from MET via connection to MET's regional distribution system.Although pipeline and <br /> connection capacity rights do not guarantee the availability of water, they do guarantee the ability to <br /> convey water into the local system when it is available to the MET distribution system. <br /> A comparison between the supply and demand for projected years between 2025 and 2050 is shown in <br /> Table 7.2, while a breakdown of potable supplies is presented in Table 7.3 and 7.4, respectively.The table <br /> demonstrates that projected supplies and demands are equal in every planning year, with no anticipated <br /> surpluses or shortfalls.As stated above, the available supply will meet projected demands due to a <br /> diversified supply and conservation measures limiting and reducing imported demands in the later years. <br /> Santa Ana's supplies are provided by MET and OC Basin. In MET's 2025 Urban Water Management Plan, <br /> they identify their wholesale supplies as 100 percent reliable under normal-year conditions,with surpluses <br /> over 3 MAF across the planning horizon (Submittal Table 7-2; MET, 2025). <br /> Table 7.2 Retail: Normal Year Supply and Use Comparison <br /> SupplySubmittal Table 7-2 Retail: Normal Year <br /> Water Code Section 0, <br /> 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050(Opt) <br /> (AF) (AF) (AF) (AF) (AF) <br /> Supply totals 31,908 32,085 32,303 32,262 32,167 <br /> autofill from Submittal Table 6-9 R <br /> Use totals 31,908 32,085 32,303 32,262 32,167 <br /> autofill from Submittal Table 4-2 R <br /> Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0 <br /> NOTES:This table compares the projected demand and supply volumes determined in Sections 4.3.2 and 6.1, <br /> respectively. <br /> CITY OF SANTA ANA <br />