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2025 URBAN WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN <br /> MAY 2026/FINAL DRAFT/CAROLLO <br /> Table 7.5 Retail:Single Dry Year Supply and Demand Comparison <br /> ComparisonSubmittal Table 7-3 Retail: Single Dry Year Supply and Use <br /> Water Code Section16 <br /> 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050(Opt) <br /> (AF) (AF) (AF) (AF) (AF) <br /> Supply totals 32,734 32,916 33,139 33,097 33,000 <br /> Use totals 32,734 32,916 33,139 33,097 33,000 <br /> Surplus/(shortfall) 0 0 0 0 0 <br /> NOTES:The single dry year projections estimate a 3%increase on imported M&I demand. <br /> 7.3.3 Multiple Dry Years Reliability <br /> Multiple dry years are defined as five or more consecutive dry years with minimal rainfall within a period <br /> of average precipitation. Orange County water demand projection model (described in Chapter 4) isolated <br /> the impacts that weather and future climate can have on water demand through the use of a statistical <br /> model. The impacts of hot/dry weather conditions are reflected as a percentage increase in water <br /> demands from the normal year condition. During multiple dry years, the UWMP applies dry-year <br /> adjustment factors to reflect future climate conditions and retail level water demand.These increase <br /> 3 percent in single-dry and first multiple-dry year, going up to 12, 13, 15, and 17 percent in subsequent <br /> drought years, relative to average-year demand (see Table 7.1) (MWDOC, 2025). Rather than repeating the <br /> single dry year factor for all five years, the five year multi dry year scenario applies the year specific dry <br /> year adjustment factors for each consecutive year, reflecting the increasing impacts of extended drought. <br /> Santa Ana has demonstrated that its water supplies remain fully reliable throughout a <br /> five-consecutive-year dry period from 2025 through 2050. Even assuming a conservative demand increase <br /> of 3-17 percent each year for 5 consecutive years, Santa Ana is capable of meeting all customers' <br /> demands from 2025 through 2050 (Table 7.6), with significant reserves held by MET and conservation. <br /> The table includes treated and untreated water from MET for M&I and non-M&I demands. The multiple <br /> dry-year projections estimate a 3 percent increase on imported M&I demand.The 2030 column assesses <br /> supply and demand for FY 2025-26 through FY 2029-30; the 2035 column assesses FY 2030-31 through <br /> FY 2034-35 and so forth, to end the water service reliability assessment in FY 2045-50. <br /> CITY OF SANTA ANA <br />