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2025 URBAN WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN <br /> MAY 2026/FINAL DRAFT/CAROLLO <br /> WSCP actions. Beyond this, MET's DRA indicated a surplus of supplies that would be available to all of its <br /> member agencies, including Santa Ana, should the need arise.Therefore, any increase in demand that is <br /> experienced in Santa Ana's service area is assumed to be met by MET's water supplies. <br /> Based on the City's water demand projection mode discussed in more detail in Chapter 4, in a single dry <br /> year, demand is expected to increase by seven percent above a normal year(see Table 7.1). Santa Ana's <br /> DRA conservatively assumes that a drought from FY 2025-26 through FY 2029-30 is based on the FY 2025 <br /> normal year supply with the five-year consecutive dry year hydrology (from Table 7.1) (MWDOC, 2025). <br /> 7.5.1.2 Water Supply Characterization <br /> Santa Ana's assumptions for its supply capabilities are discussed and presented in 5-year increments <br /> under its water reliability assessment in Section 7.3. For Santa Ana's DRA, these supply capabilities are <br /> further refined and presented annually for the years 2026 to 2030, which the Orange County Demand <br /> Model (2025) applied a historical dry-year sequence from within 1991-2024 dataset as an analog for five <br /> consecutive dry years. Groundwater is sustainably managed through the BPP and robust management <br /> measures (Section 6.3.4 and Appendix G), direct and indirect recycled water uses provide additional local <br /> supply (Section 6.6), and based on MET's UWMP, imported water is available to close any local water <br /> supply gap (Section 7.5.1). <br /> For its DRA,the model assessed the reliability of supplies available to Orange County through MET using <br /> historical supply availability under dry-year conditions. MET's supply sources under the CR, SWP, and <br /> in-region supply categories are individually listed and discussed in detail in MET's UWMP. Future supply <br /> capabilities for each of these supply sources are also individually tabulated in Appendix 3 of MET's UWMP, <br /> with consideration for plausible changes on projected supplies under climate change conditions, <br /> anticipated regulatory changes, and other factors. In addition, Santa Ana may benefit from <br /> MET-implemented supply augmentation actions during regional shortages.These actions are planned and <br /> exercised by MET based on regional conditions and in accordance with the Water Supply Contingency <br /> Plan (WSCP) and are not assumed as baseline or guaranteed supplies for Santa Ana. Such actions may <br /> include the use of supplies and storage programs within the Colorado River, SWP, and in-region storage <br /> portfolios. <br /> 7.5.2 Total Water Supply and Use Comparison <br /> Santa Ana's anticipated total water use and supply under a five-year drought from FY 2025-26 through <br /> FY 2029-30, are compared in Table 7.7. Santa Ana's assessment reveals that its supply capabilities are <br /> expected to balance with its projected water use for the next five years, from 2026 to 2030. <br /> CITY OF SANTA ANA <br />