Item 21 - Public Hearing - Resolutions Approving the 2025 Urban Water Management Plan and the 2025 Water Shortage Contingency Plan

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202S WATER SHORTAGE CONTINGENCY PLAN MAY 2026/FINAL DRAFT/CAROLLO Locally Applicable Evaluation Criteria Within Orange County, there are no significant local applicable criteria that directly affect reliability. Through the years, the water agencies in Orange County have made tremendous efforts to integrate their systems to provide flexibility to interchange with different sources of supplies.There are emergency agreements in place to ensure all parts of the County have an adequate supply of water. In the northern part of the County, agencies have the ability to meet a majority of their demands through groundwater with very little limitation, except for the OCWD BPP. The City will also continue to monitor emerging supply and demand conditions related to supplemental imported water from MET and take appropriate actions consistent with the flexibility and adaptiveness inherent to the WSCP.The City's AWSDA was based on the City's service area,water sources,water supply reliability, and water use as described in Water Code Section 10631, including available data from state, regional, or local agency population, land use development, and climate change projections within the service area of the City. Some conditions that affect MET's wholesale supply and demand, such as groundwater replenishment, surface water and local supply production, can differ significantly from earlier projections throughout the year. If a major earthquake on the San Andreas Fault occurs, it has the potential to damage all three key regional water aqueducts and disrupt imported supplies for up to six months.The region would likely impose a water use reduction ranging from 25 to 35 percent until the system is repaired. However, MET has taken proactive steps to handle such disruption, such as constructing DVL, and prepositioning necessary reconstruction resources to quickly recover from such a seismic event, which mitigates potential impacts. DVL, along with other local reservoirs, can store a six to twelve-month supply of emergency water(MET, 2026a). 3.2.2.3 Water Supply As detailed in the City's 2025 UWMP, the City meets all of its customers' demands with a combination of local groundwater, imported water from MET, and local recycled water. The City's main source of water supply is groundwater from the OC Basin,with imported water from MET and recycled water making up the rest of the City's water supply portfolio. In fiscal year (FY) 2024-25, the City relied on approximately 87 percent groundwater and 13 percent imported water. It is projected that by 2050, the water supply portfolio will change to approximately 85 percent groundwater and 15 percent imported water (Santa Ana, 2026). Unconstrained Customer Demand The WSCP and AWSDA define unconstrained demand as expected water use prior to any projected shortage response actions that may be taken under the WSCP. Unconstrained demand is distinguished from observed demand,which may be constrained by preceding, ongoing, or future actions, such as emergency supply allocations during a multi-year drought.WSCP shortage response actions to constrain demand are inherently extraordinary; routine activities such as ongoing conservation programs and regular operational adjustments are not considered as constraints on demands. The City's DRA reveals that its supply capabilities are expected to balance anticipated total water use and supply, assuming a five-year consecutive drought from FY 2025-26 through FY 2029-30 (Santa Ana, 2026). CITY OF SANTA ANA