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2025 URBAN WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN <br /> MAY 2026/FINAL DRAFT/CAROLLO <br /> Non-Potable Municipal and Industrial Use <br /> As shown in Table 4.3, the total non-potable water demands for commercial irrigation use are projected <br /> to remain relatively constant between 2030 and 2050, with non-potable demands projected to be 305 AF <br /> in 2050. It is projected that commercial irrigation use will account for 100 percent of total non-potable <br /> water use in the City by 2050. <br /> 4.3 Water Demand Projection Methodology <br /> In 2025, MWDOC and OCWD, in collaboration with MWDOC's member agencies and the Cities of <br /> Anaheim, Fullerton, and Santa Ana, led the effort to develop the 2025 Orange County Water Demand <br /> Projection Model (MWDOC, 2025).This effort developed a demand model by regressing historical water <br /> consumption data provided by each Orange County water agency against several explanatory variables <br /> known to influence water demand (including weather,water price, regional economic conditions, and <br /> housing density). The water demand projections were for the Orange County region as a whole and <br /> provided retail agency specific demands, spanning the years of 2025-2050.The full TM can be found in <br /> Appendix H. <br /> The demand projections created four econometric, or regression, demand models representing the <br /> following four water billing sectors for each Orange County retail agency: <br /> ■ Single-Family Residential. <br /> ■ Multi-Family Residential. <br /> ■ CIL <br /> ■ Dedicated Irrigation (potable, recycled, and raw water) <br /> Prior to developing the forecasts, model calibration and fine tuning for each of the four demand sectors <br /> occurred at the individual retail agency level. The demand across all four models, plus other uses for each <br /> agency, is summed to a total forecast for each agency, the MWDOC service area, the OCWD service area, <br /> and total Orange County. <br /> The demand projection methodology accounted for the entire population of each individual retail <br /> agency's service area (i.e., all income levels), thus accounting for the water demand projections for lower <br /> income households within the City's service area. <br /> 4.3.1 Econometric Approach, Data Acquisition, and Model Development <br /> A regression, or econometric, approach to demand forecasting statistically links retail level water use to <br /> weather, economic, and socioeconomic factors (explanatory variables).The model relies on a <br /> comprehensive dataset of historical water use data for almost 40 different billing sectors collected from <br /> Orange County retail agencies. MWDOC obtained explanatory variables from reputable sources, including <br /> weather databases and Census-based reports.The explanatory variables used in the regression were <br /> based on industry experience regarding what factors affect water use nationwide and in Southern <br /> California. <br /> CITY OF SANTA ANA <br />