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2025 URBAN WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN <br /> MAY 2026/FINAL DRAFT/CAROLLO <br /> Figure 4.3 presents the iterative process undergone to develop the econometric demand forecasts. <br /> N Collect and process <br /> historical data <br /> 0 <br /> a <br /> a� <br /> Develop econometric <br /> models The type and number <br /> a4of variables used is <br /> o iteratively determined <br /> Z Equations explaining <br /> historical water use <br /> h <br /> a Collect and process <br /> oprojected data <br /> a � <br /> y Develop Demand <br /> a� <br /> Projections <br /> a <br /> O <br /> V, <br /> Figure 4.3 Econometric Demand Forecast Development Process <br /> 4.3.2 Forecasted Demands <br /> Forecasted demand is a function of both the change in driver units into the future as well as the change in <br /> explanatory variables.Table 4.8 summarizes the future drivers and variables and assumptions for the <br /> baseline forecast. It should be noted that the CDR demographic forecast accounts for both the RHNA <br /> allocations and projected increase in ADUs. , The 2022 Orange County Projections accounted for Draft <br /> RHNA rezone sites' with jurisdictions including the number of dwelling units that are most likely to <br /> occur/get built by the end of 2050 under assumptions and trends existing at the time of the forecasting <br /> effort. <br /> ' For the 2022 Orange County Projections, CDR collected initial draft input from local jurisdictions in <br /> September 2021 on their anticipated jurisdiction-level housing growth for each projection year. In <br /> December 2021-February 2022, CDR reviewed and extracted data from jurisdictions' draft housing <br /> elements to create a parcel-level inventory of additional housing capacity from sites that were to be <br /> rezoned to accommodate the 6th RHNA cycle.These were reviewed by jurisdictions in spring 2022. <br /> Jurisdictions completed the rezoning of the final sites after their housing elements were certified by the <br /> State Housing and Community Development Department starting in 2022.The final adopted rezone sites <br /> will feed into CDR's 2026 Orange County Projections. <br /> CITY OF SANTA ANA <br />