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2025 URBAN WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN <br /> MAY 2026/FINAL DRAFT/CAROLLO <br /> critically low water reserves. Fisheries issues can also restrict the operations of the export pumps even <br /> when water supplies are available. <br /> ■ Water rights with priority over the SWP:Water users with prior water rights are assigned higher <br /> priority in DWR's modeling of the SWP's water delivery reliability, even ahead of SWP Table A water. <br /> ■ Climate change: Mean temperatures are predicted to vary more significantly than previously <br /> expected.This change in climate is anticipated to bring warmer winter storms that result in less <br /> snowfall at lower elevations, reducing total snowpack. From historical data, DWR projects that by <br /> 20S0, the Sierra snowpack will be reduced from its historical average by 25 to 40 percent. Increased <br /> precipitation as rain could result in a larger number of"rain-on-snow" events, causing snow to melt <br /> earlier in the year and over fewer days than historically, affecting the availability of water for pumping <br /> by the SWP during summer. Furthermore,water quality may be adversely affected due to the <br /> anticipated increase in wildfires. Rising sea levels may result in potential pumping cutbacks on the <br /> SWP and CVP. DWR's recent planning documents and the Draft 202S DCR describe climate-adjusted <br /> "existing conditions" baselines and future scenarios used by agencies for UWMPs. <br /> ■ Regulatory restrictions on SWP Delta exports:The federal Biological Opinions (BiOps) protect <br /> special-status species such as delta smelt and spring- and winter-run Chinook salmon and imposed <br /> substantial constraints on Delta water supply operations through requirements for Delta inflow and <br /> outflow and export pumping restrictions. Restrictions on SWP operations imposed by state and <br /> federal agencies contribute substantially to the challenge of accurately determining the SWP's water <br /> delivery reliability in any given year(DWR, 2020b). <br /> ■ Ongoing environmental and policy planning efforts: Following the 2019 withdrawal of WaterFix, <br /> DWR certified the Delta Conveyance Project Final EIR and approved the Bethany alignment in <br /> December 2023, a key modernization initiative for the SWP. EcoRestore and related habitat efforts <br /> continue to advance. <br /> ■ Delta levee failure:The levees are vulnerable to failure because most original levees were simply <br /> built with soils dredged from nearby channels and were not engineered.A breach of one or more <br /> levees and island flooding could affect Delta water quality and SWP operations for several months. <br /> When islands are flooded, DWR may need to drastically decrease or even cease SWP Delta exports to <br /> evaluate damage caused by salinity in the Delta. <br /> It can be concluded that the federal regulatory framework affecting the Bay-Delta's ecosystem, species, <br /> and water supply are constantly evolving by adapting to new scientific information, changing climate <br /> conditions, and legal challenges. This dynamic and complex regulatory landscape, along with hydrologic <br /> and storage conditions along the SWP, continues to result in water supply uncertainties that impact all <br /> SWP contractors, including MET, MWDOC, and its member agencies (MET, 2025). <br /> 6.2.3.3 SWP Programs/Plans <br /> In the past five years, MET has updated and implemented planning, regulatory, infrastructure, and <br /> operational programs to improve the reliability of the SWP supplies while addressing environmental, <br /> seismic, and climate-related risks in the Delta and along the California Aqueduct. Key SWP programs and <br /> planning efforts include: <br /> ■ SWP Biological Opinions and California Incidental Take Permit- Updated federal BiOps and a <br /> California Incidental Take Permit issued in 2024 provide a new operating framework intended to <br /> CITY OF SANTA ANA <br />