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rates in San Francisco. We would expect that our results would be particularly strong in <br />those years when the outside option is worse due to quickly rising rents. Along with our <br />yearly estimated effect of rent control, we plot the yearly deviation from the log trend in <br />rental rates against our estimated effect of rent control in that given year. We indeed see that <br />our effects grew quite strongly in the mid to late 1990s in conjunction with quickly rising <br />rents, relative to trend. Our effects then stabilize and slightly decline in the early 2000s in <br />the wake of the Dot-com bubble crash, which led to falling rental rates relative to trend. <br />Overall, we measure a correlation of 49.4% between our estimated same address effects and <br />median rents, and a correlation of 78.4% between out estimated SF effects and median rents. <br />In Table 3, we collapse our estimated effects into a short-term 1994-1999 effect, a medium- <br />term 2000-2004 effect, and a long-term post -2005 effect. We find that in the short -run, <br />tenants in rent -controlled housing are 2.18 percentage points more likely to remain at the <br />same address. This estimate reflects a 4.03 percent increase relative to the 1994-1999 control <br />group mean of 54.10 percent. In the medium term, rent -controlled tenants are 3.54 percent- <br />age points more likely to remain at the same address, reflecting a 19.38 percent increase over <br />the 2000-2004 control group mean of 18.27 percent. Finally, in the long-term, rent -controlled <br />tenants are 1.47 percentage points more likely to remain at the same address. This is a 12.95 <br />percent increase over the control group mean of 11.35 percent. These effects are intuitive <br />since we expect the utility benefits of staying in a rent controlled apartment to grow over <br />time as the wedge between controlled and market rents widen. <br />Tenants who benefit from rent control are 2.00 percentage points more likely to remain in <br />San Francisco in the short, term, 4.51 percentage points more likely in the medium-term, and <br />3.66 percentage points more likely in the long-term. Relative to the control group means, <br />these estimates reflect increases of 2.62 percent, 8.78 percent, and 8.42 percent respectively. <br />Since these numbers are of the same magnitude as the treatment effects of stay at one's <br />exact 1994 apartment, we find that absent rent control essentially all of those incentivized <br />to stay in their apartments would have otherwise moved out of San Francisco. <br />13 <br />