75A - PH METRO EAST MIXED USE OVERLAY (MEMU)

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/� _/+O� Imagine it. 401 W A St. Suite 1200 NE` Delivered. San Diego, CA 92101 Qualitative Assessment of the Net Fiscal Impact Metro East Mixed Use Expansion This memo contains a qualitative review of the potential net fiscal impacts that might result from an extension of the Metro East Mixed Use (MEMU) Overlay Zone. It is understood that the proposal would expand the MEMU by approximately 33 acres and extend the existing development capacity of 5,551 new residential units, 963,000 square feet (SF) of new commercial'space, and 690,000 SF of new office space over the newly reconfigured area. The total developmenrcapacity will not change, but the land area footprint would increase, resulting in lower flooi-area ratios (FARs) needed overall to accommodate this capacity. A portion or all of the existing development on the 33 -acre extension might eventually be replaced as some of the existing MEMU development capacity shifts. Extension of existing development capacity to a new area"without an increase in overall citywide capacity would be expected to transfer net fiscal impact at buildout from one area'of the city to another. In other words, no meaningful additional costs or benefits would tie expected because the development potential is simply being spread out over an extended adjacent area. An initial review of this proposal suggests that this would appear to be the most likely outcome of the exfension. There are some factors that could lead to a different outcome upon further evaluation. These include: 1. Development potential in the;existing MEMU — If buildout of the allowable land use capacity in the existing MEMU is not physically or economically feasible, the opportunity to develop that capacity in the existing MEMU_ is diminished, and the transferto an expanded MEMU may be an enabler rather than a transfer. 2. Development potential in the extended MEMU —The fiscal benefits and costs of development in the extended MEMU is only realized if the development is physically or economically feasible in the extension area. 3. Redevelopment of current land uses in the extension area —Consideration of the fiscal revenues and costs of existing development in the extension area that would be redeveloped and subtracted from the City's inventory, less what is preserved in the existing MEMU, would have to be deducted to determine the net benefit. If an evaluation of these factors suggests the long-term allowable development would occur with or without the extended MEMU then no substantial change in net fiscal costs/benefits would likely occur. However if the opposite is likely, and the extension of the MEMU would make buildout more or less likely, then net fiscal costs/benefits would be expected to change. Additionally, as noted in bullet 3 above, redevelopment in the extension area of the MEMU could impact fiscal revenues and costs dependent on whether existing residents, tenants, and owners remain long-term. Net Fiscal Impact EXHIBIT E 75A-313