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APPENDIX B1DEMAND MODEL - DEMOGRAPHIC BASEDORANGE COUNTY2017 THROUGH 2022Percent 2017 Households 2017-2022 Annual GrowthIncome Income to Affordable (2) % (4) T/O % Obs. (2) % New NewRange Rent (1) Rent Households Rent (3) Renters T/O Dem. Obs. Demand HHs Rent (3) Renters DemandOrange CountyUnder $35,00040%Under $1,200 225,972 64% 143,847 65% 93,501 0.5% 468 -1,158 69% 0468$35,000 - $50,00038%$1,200 - $1,600 109,552 56% 61,876 65% 40,219 0.5% 201 -130 61% 0201$50,000 - $75,00036%$1,600 - $2,300 165,912 49% 81,675 65% 53,089 0.5% 265 18 54% 10275$75,000 - $100,00030%$2,300 - $2,500 134,645 42% 56,302 65% 36,596 0.5% 183 596 47% 279462$100,000 - $150,00025%$2,500 - $3,100 189,892 31% 58,973 65% 38,332 0.5% 192 2,580 36% 9301,122$150,000 - $200,00022%$3,100 - $3,700 99,557 16% 15,901 65% 10,335 0.5% 52 2,138 21% 448500$200,000 - $250,00021%$3,700 - $4,400 46,272 16% 7,390 65% 4,804 0.5% 24 2,637 21% 553577$250,000 and Over20%$4,400 and Over 87,976 16% 14,051 65% 9,133 0.5% 46 3,894 21% 817862Total 1,059,778 42% 440,014 65% 286,009 1,430 10,574 29% 3,036 4,466Buildable Demand 833,806 36% 296,167 192,508 963 11,732 26% 3,036 3,999Santa AnaUnder $35,000 40% Under $1,200 23,003 73% 16,680 65% 10,842 0.5% 54 -61 78% 054$35,000 - $50,000 38% $1,200 - $1,600 11,995 66% 7,877 65% 5,120 0.5% 26 18 71% 1339$50,000 - $75,000 36% $1,600 - $2,300 15,624 52% 8,151 65% 5,298 0.5% 26 50 57% 2955$75,000 - $100,000 30% $2,300 - $2,500 10,361 43% 4,415 65% 2,870 0.5% 14 93 48% 4459$100,000 - $150,000 25% $2,500 - $3,100 10,268 30% 3,052 65% 1,984 0.5% 10 262 35% 91101$150,000 - $200,000 22% $3,100 - $3,700 3,594 24% 855 65% 556 0.5% 3 130 29% 3740$200,000 - $250,000 21% $3,700 - $4,400 1,210 24% 288 65% 187 0.5% 1 96 29% 2829$250,000 and Over 20% $4,400 and Over 1,381 24% 328 65% 213 0.5% 1 81 29% 2324Total 77,436 54% 41,646 65% 27,070 135 669 40% 265 401Buildable Demand 54,433 46% 24,966 16,228 81 730 36% 265 346Capture of County 7% 8% 8% 6% 9% 9%CMAUnder $35,000 40% Under $1,200 27,444 74% 20,274 65% 13,178 0.5% 66 -73 79% 066$35,000 - $50,000 38% $1,200 - $1,600 13,492 65% 8,745 65% 5,684 0.5% 28 8 70% 534$50,000 - $75,000 36% $1,600 - $2,300 19,023 58% 11,099 65% 7,214 0.5% 36 47 63% 3066$75,000 - $100,000 30% $2,300 - $2,500 15,231 46% 7,009 65% 4,556 0.5% 23 44 51% 2245$100,000 - $150,000 25% $2,500 - $3,100 18,346 38% 6,881 65% 4,473 0.5% 22 311 43% 132155$150,000 - $200,000 22% $3,100 - $3,700 8,637 20% 1,737 65% 1,129 0.5% 6 187 25% 4753$200,000 - $250,000 21% $3,700 - $4,400 3,776 20% 759 65% 494 0.5% 2 212 25% 5356$250,000 and Over 20% $4,400 and Over 6,761 20% 1,360 65% 884 0.5% 4 280 25% 7075Total 112,710 51% 57,863 65% 37,611 188 1,016 35% 360 548Buildable Demand 85,266 44% 37,590 24,433 122 1,089 33% 360 482Capture of County 10% 13% 13% 9% 12% 12%Sources:(1) TCG estimate, varies by income based on input from American Community FactFinder (US Census, 2015 5-Year Estimates)(2) Spotlight estimate - see Exhibit I-4A(3) American Community FactFinder (variable B25118), Exhibit I-4B; assumes new households entering market have a higher rentership rate (5 percentage points higher)(4) TCG estimate17590.00 Macro: Dem-DThe Concord Group2-298
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