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APPENDIX B2DEMAND MODEL - EMPLOYMENT BASEDORANGE COUNTY1995 THROUGH 2021ForecastAnnual5-YrValues in 000s 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Avg.StaticJobs (MMs)Orange County 1.16 1.19 1.24 1.31 1.35 1.39 1.42 1.41 1.43 1.46 1.50 1.53 1.53 1.49 1.39 1.37 1.39 1.42 1.46 1.50 1.54 1.58 1.62 1.64 1.65 1.66 1.67Apartments (000s)Orange County195 198 201 203 204 208 210 211 214 220 225 225 229 230 233 237 240Jobs / Apartment7.2 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.0 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6GrowthJob Growth (000s)Orange County 25 32 49 65 43 43 25 (10) 26 29 35 29 (3) (31) (106) (16) 16 37 39 34 48 35 40 21 13 3 8 17Cumulative ('00+) 43 67 58 84 113 148 177 174 143 37 20 37 74 112 146 194 229Apartment Deliveries (000s)Orange County1.3 5.1 0.7 2.5 1.6 3.5 1.9 0.8 4.1 8.8 1.2 0.1 3.4 3.0 3.4 3.3 2.9Cumulative ('00+)1.3 6.4 7.1 9.6 11.2 14.6 16.5 17.4 21.5 30.3 31.4 31.5 35.0 38.0 41.4 44.6 47.5Jobs/MF Delivery32.5 10.6 8.1 8.7 10.1 10.1 10.7 10.0 6.7 1.2 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.0 3.5 4.34.8Demand ProjectionScenario 1 (000s) - Employment Based Demand - Jobs/MF DeliveryProjection (5 Jobs per MF Delivery)8.0 4.2 2.7 0.6 1.7 3.4Santa Ana Capture10%10% 10% 10% 10%Santa Ana Demand0.80 0.42 0.27 0.06 0.17 0.34CMA Capture10%10% 10% 10% 10%CMA Demand0.80 0.42 0.27 0.06 0.17 0.34Scenario 2 (000s) - Employment Based Demand - Jobs to Housing RatioNew Jobs40 21 13 3 8 17Jobs / Household (2017)1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5Housing Units Demanded26.1 13.8 8.8 1.9 5.4 11.2% Renter41% 41% 41% 41% 41%Orange County Apartment Demand10.7 5.7 3.6 0.8 2.2 4.6% Income Qualify (Exhibit II-7A)85% 85% 85% 85% 85%Orange County Income Qual Demand 9.1 4.8 3.1 0.7 1.9 3.9Santa Ana Capture10% 10% 10% 10% 10%Santa Ana Demand0.91 0.48 0.31 0.07 0.19 0.39CMA Capture10% 10% 10% 10% 10%CMA Demand0.91 0.48 0.31 0.07 0.19 0.39Source: CoStar; Moody's010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,000050,000100,000150,000200,000250,000300,000350,0002000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2017 2019 2021Cumulative Values - 2000+Job Growth - Cumulative (bar)Apartment Deliveries (Historical)Demand - Scenario 1Demand - Scenario 217590.00 Macro: DemEThe Concord Group2-299