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Santa Ana Redhill Development Prepared for: City of Santa Ana AECOM 21 Table 10: Santa Ana Projected Industrial Employment Santa Ana Current and Projected Industrial Employment 2017-2026 2017 Jobs Santa Ana Capture Estimated Incremental Growth 2017-2026 Construction 7,182 7% 1,388 Manufacturing 19,043 12% 122 Wholesale Trade 6,671 7% 205 Transportation and Warehousing 1,766 7% 273 Professional/Scientific/Tech Services 11,596 9% 1,156 Admin/Support Waste Management 16,700 13% 1,674 Total 63,000 5,000 Estimated SF of Industrial Space 35,000,000 2,700,000 Note: Totals are rounded and my not sum Source: LEHD, EDD, AECOM If Santa Ana maintains its current capture rate for employment concentrated in industrial land uses, then employment in these sectors could increase by approximately 5,000 by 2026. These jobs could support approximately 2.7 million additional SF of industrial/flex space. There are currently approximately 540,000 SF of industrial space unde r construction in the 2-mile radius surrounding the site, with 500,000 SF on a 24-acre lot just east of the Dyer South district in Santa Ana (located at 666 E. Dyer Rd.). To accommodate future employment growth in Santa Ana according to current trends and projections from the EDD, approximately 2.2 million SF could be demanded by 2026. Retail Demand AECOM estimated retail demand for the Project based on existing residential, employment, and visitor demand, and estimated incremental demand resulting from these land uses that have been identified in the development pipeline (according to CoStar). In the following discussion and tables there is a focus on current land uses and buildout. Current refers to land uses that are on the ground, while buildout refers to what is included in the development pipeline that can be reasonably expected within the next three to five years . Based on a review of the broader Orange County retail market, it is assumed that Project retail is most likely to serve demand from on-site residents and workers, as well as workers, residents, and hotel guests that are close to the project. A 2-mile radius was utilized to estimate demand. AECOM preliminarily estimates that the Project could support between 65,000-80,000 SF of new retail space under current conditions and between 80,000-96,000 SF at buildout of development currently in the known pipeline within a 2-mile radius of the project. Beyond the pipeline of projects (currently proposed or under construction), the Tustin Legacy Specific Plan allows 3,500 additional housing units and approximately 500,000 SF of commercial space that could be added at some point in the future. It is important to note that the timeline for delivery of this additional inventory is unknown and is contingent upon economic conditions and other factors. As such, this analysis does not include any estimate of supportable retail demand from this future potential buildout. A portion of the household spending from these additional units would be captured at the Bowery project; however, the timeline uncertainty involved in the delivery of such units makes it infeasible to estimate responsibly. This potential demand is contingent both on the actual mix of businesses that occupy the retail space at the Project and the c haracteristics of the future competitive supply in the vicinity of the Project. AECOM estimates that stabilized occupancy of this planned space could create demand for an additional 4,800-6,000 SF of retail space at the Project beyond the estimated 80,000-96,000 SF at buildout sited in the preceding paragraph. 3-248