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Santa Ana Redhill Development
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<br />Prepared for: City of Santa Ana
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<br />AECOM
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<br />Supportable on-site retail demand is estimated based on a reasonable Project capture rate of resident, worker, and
<br />hotel guest expenditures within both a ½-mile radius and 2-mile radius. Higher capture rates are assumed within the
<br />½-mile radius as a result of it being walk accessible. There are approximately 3.4 million SF of retail space within a 2-
<br />mile radius of the Project, including a variety of destination, neighborhood and convenience options , and
<br />approximately 75,000 SF in the current development pipeline. AECOM estimated on-site supportable retail demand
<br />for the Project based on characteristics of households, employees, and hotel guests under current conditions, and at
<br />buildout of land uses currently in the pipeline in the 2-mile radius surrounding the Project, which includes the Tustin
<br />Specific Plan. Buildout estimates include stable occupancy of residential, commercial, and industrial land uses for all
<br />known projects currently proposed and under construction. Capture rates for retail space in the Project are a
<br />reasonable estimate based on current and future competitive supply. The fo llowing tables detail findings (Figures in
<br />the tables are rounded and may not sum). Assumptions and details of dat a sources follow.
<br />Table 11 : Retail Expenditures - Households
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<br />AECOM estimates that existing households within the 2-mile radius generate approximately $11.4 million of total
<br />expenditures under current conditions and $15.6 million that could be captured by the Project at buildout of uses in
<br />the pipeline. These expenditures are based on ESRI estimates of the median household income in the 2-mile radius
<br />($70,000) and the proportion of that income that is spent of retail purchases of al l types (30%).AECOM then
<br />estimated the capture rates for those living on-site, within a ½ mile radius, and within a 2-mile radius based on
<br />reasonable assumptions of spending at retail establishments that is likely to occupy the space as detailed in the
<br />Project’s development program.
<br />Table 12: Retail Expenditures - Employees
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<br />A similar approach was utilized to estimate demand from employees. AECOM estimates that employee demand could
<br />generate approximately $13.7 million of total expenditures under current conditions and $15.1 million at buildout that
<br />could be captured by Project retail at buildout of uses in the pipelin e.
<br />The US Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) estimates that there are 7,300 and
<br />100,000 workers respectively within a ½-mile and 2-mile radius of the project. Employment sectors include a wide
<br />variety of manufacturing, professional and technical services, retail, and others. This was then combined with
<br />Current Buildout**Current Buildout**Current Buildout**
<br />Housing Units 0 2,248 22,922 23,434 22,922 25,682
<br />Households (95% occupancy)0 2,136 21,776 23,434 21,776 25,570
<br />On-Site 0 1,027 0 0 0 1,027
<br />Expenditure Site Capture 0 7.5%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
<br />Off-Site 0 1,221 22,922 23,434 22,922 24,594
<br />Site-Capture(%)0 7.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%
<br />Median HH Income 0 $70,000 $70,000 $70,000 $70,000 $70,000
<br />HH Retail Expenditures***0 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000 $21,000
<br />Total Estimated HH Retail Ependitures 0 $45,000,000 $455,000,000 $490,002,849 $455,334,069 $534,658,245
<br />Total Estimated HH Expenditures Capture 0 $3,430,000 $11,380,000 $12,250,000 $11,380,000 $15,680,000
<br />** Assumes stable occupancy of dwelling units (95%) in The Heritage, Bowery, and all projects in the known current pipeline
<br />***BLS asssumes 30% of meidian income is spent on all retail categories, site-capture rate adjusted for probable retail type
<br />Source: ESRI, BLS, Costar, California DOF, AECOM
<br />*2 Mile Radius is exclusive of 1/2 Mile Radius to avoid double counting. Numbers are rounded and may not sum.
<br /> Estimated Bowery Capture of Household Retail Expenditures
<br />1/2 Mile Radius 2 Mile Radius*Total
<br />Current Buildout**Current Buildout**Current Buildout**
<br />Employees 7,285 10,097 99,828 103,803 107,113 113,899
<br />On-site 0 304 0 0 0 304
<br />Annual Expenditures***$4,500 $4,500 $4,500 $4,500 $4,500 $4,500
<br />Site Capture 10%10%0%0%0%0%
<br />Off-site 7,285 9,793 99,828 103,803 107,113 113,595
<br />Annual Expenditures***$4,500 4,500 $4,500 4,500 $4,500 4,500
<br />Site Capture 7.5%7.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%
<br />Total Estimated Employee Retail Expenditures $32,782,500 $45,434,548 $449,223,840 $467,111,369 $482,006,340 $512,545,917
<br />Total Estimated Employee Expenditures Capture $2,460,000 $3,441,000 $11,230,000 $11,678,000 $13,690,000 $15,120,000
<br />Estimated Bowery Capture of Employee Retail Expenditures
<br />1/2 Mile Radius 2 Mile Radius*Total
<br />*2 Mile Radius is exclusive of 1/2 Mile Radius to avoid double counting. Numbers are rounded and may not sum.
<br />** Assumes stable occupancy of commercial/industrial space in The Heritage, Bowery, Flight and all projects in the known current pipeline using
<br />Employee/Square Foot industry standards by land use type
<br />***Based on ICSC data for average workday spending for office and retail workers transportation, grocery stores and warehouse clubs
<br />Source: ESRI, BLS, LEHD, Costar, ICSC, AECOM
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