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Correspondence - #33
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Correspondence - #33
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a) Time (before 1993 and after 1993); see Table 6a; <br />b) Household income (high or low); see Table 6b; and <br />c) Proportion of elderly residents (high or low); see Table 6c. <br />Perhaps the most important result is shown in the lower panel of Table 6a. In <br />every case, the coefficient on the categorical variable for a rigid rent control <br />regime after 1993 is positive. In only one case, (San Bernardino county) is it not <br />significant. The coefficient is the incremental annual rate of growth in percentage <br />points in real prices attributable to rigid rent control. It ranges from a high of 1.94 <br />percent (Riverside county) to a low of 0.21 percent (San Diego county)12. For the <br />aggregate data set, the annual real growth rate in prices of mobile homes is 1.11 <br />percentage points higher in communities with rigid rent control regimes after 1993. <br />This amounts to a gain of as much as $4,000 after ten years. In the same years, the <br />annual growth rate for the prices of coaches in flexible regimes is -0.19 percentage <br />points lower than for coaches in the overall market. Or, aggregating the two <br />effects, the rate of price increase of coaches in communities with rigid regimes is <br />1.3 percentage points higher than for coaches in flexible regimes after 1993. <br />Before 1993, the results are mixed. For the aggregate data set, the annual real <br />growth rate in prices of mobile homes is 0.57 percentage points lower in <br />communities with rigid rent control regimes than in the market overall. But, in <br />communities where there is a flexible rent control regime, the rate of price increase <br />overall is 1.69 percentage points lower. That is, the rate of price increase in rigid <br />regimes is 1.12 percentage points higher than in flexible regimes before 1993. In <br />Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego counties the impact is positive and significant <br />rather than negative. In Ventura county, it is positive and insignificant. In Santa <br />Clara and San Bernardino counties, it is negative and significant and, in Riverside <br />county, it is negative and insignificant. We believe that flexible rent control <br />schemes (with vacancy decontrol) may cause landlords to mark to market more <br />consistently than in markets where there is no rent control. This may lead to coach <br />owners/buyers in these communities actually expecting to pay higher pad rents <br />over time than would their counterparts in markets without rent control. The <br />coaches in these communities would sell for less than their equivalent in <br />uncontrolled markets. The results support this hypothesis. This is the first evidence <br />of this somewhat counter -intuitive but reasonable result. <br />In Table 6b, we present results where we segment the analysis according to <br />household income. Our presumption is that the benefits of rent control may be <br />12 We do not include San Bernardino county where the coefficient is not statistically significant. <br />
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