Item 18 - Appeal Application Nos. 2023-02 and 2023-03 for Cabrillo Town Center project

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Implementation of the Overlay Zone would enact zoning changes to allow for up to 5,551 multi- family residential units. In order to quantify the direct population increase that would result from new housing in the Overlay Zone, it is necessary to determine an appropriate pph estimate to use. Based on an average person per household size of 2.0 persons per household (pph), the estimated direct population growth associated with the potential 5,551 new residential units in the Overlay Zone would be approximately 11,102 people (5,551 units x 2.0 pph). In addition, the Overlay Zone would allow for a total of 1,275,440 square feet of commercial/retail/service uses and a total of 3,410,507 square feet of office building uses. These development potential totals would represent a net increase of 963,154 square feet of commercial/retail/service uses and a net increase of 690,339 square feet of office uses compared to existing conditions within the Overlay Zone. The net new commercial and office uses in the Overlay Zone could generate an estimated 2,343 additional jobs. A population increase (without the project) of 16,905 residents is projected between 2005 and 2030 for the City, representing an annual average growth rate of 0.2 percent or approximately 676 residents per year. The direct population growth estimated to be associated with the project — approximately 11,102 people, or approximately 65 percent of the projected growth —would not result in growth exceeding this projection but is considered substantial in relation to the level of forecasted population growth. The Overlay Zone was not planned or considered in the land use factors that SCAG or the City used to estimate the population growth forecast for Santa Ana. Therefore, the population growth associated with the project is not accounted for in the population growth projections. When coupled with natural population increases in the City that will result from births and migration, the project -related direct population growth would result in population growth in the City that far exceeds the projected growth. However, in comparison to the average annual growth rate of 0.2 percent projected for the City, the population of Orange County is forecast to grow by an annual average growth rate of 0.6 percent between 2005 and 2030, while the population of the SCAG Region is forecast to grow by an average of 1.1 percent per year during this same 25-year period. Due to the fact that the City's population is forecasted to grow at a slower rate than the County and SCAG Region, the forecasted project -related direct population growth in the City is not considered substantial relative to the surrounding areas. Additionally, although the potential housing units (and associated population increase) were not previously anticipated, the City is relatively built -out and has limited opportunities for additional residential development. Specifically, according to the 2000 Housing Element of the General Plan, there was a potential for only 1,775 residential units to be developed on the City's remaining undeveloped and underutilized properties. Even if all of these units were developed, the population increase that could be accommodated would only range between 3,550 and 8,343 persons (depending on a pph factor of 2.0 or 4.7). Therefore, in order to accommodate the forecasted population growth that is anticipated to continue to occur, infill and reutilization of underdeveloped land has become a priority in the City. In particular, as discussed in the City's Cabrillo Town Center City of Santa Ana Technical Memorandum August 2023 City Council 18 — 606 10/3/2023