Item 18 - Appeal Application Nos. 2023-02 and 2023-03 for Cabrillo Town Center project

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2000 Housing Element, the City's intent is to intensify compatible residential development through adaptive reuse and mixed use within the District Center designation and other existing commercial zones. As discussed in the Land Use Element of the General Plan, District Centers are considered to be the City's "Major Development Areas," where the most intense development in the City is targeted. The Overlay Zone is a Major Development Area even though it is not designated as a District Center. SCAG projections indicate an increase of up to 13,394 employees in the City from 2005-2030. The Overlay Zone could generate up to 2,343 employment positions and would not substantially affect the employment forecasts within the City. With an existing (2005) jobs/housing ratio of 2.3 within the City, the new mix of residential and commercial/service and office uses in the Overlay Zone would improve the overall jobs/housing ratio to 2.4. The Overlay Zone new commercial/service and office uses would generate an estimated 2,343 long-term employment positions. Based on similar projects, the distribution of part-time to full- time would be approximately 60 percent (1,405) full-time jobs and 40 percent (937) part-time jobs. Based upon resident worker characteristics for similar cities, it is estimated that approximately 25 percent of the new employees generated by the Overlay Zone, or about 585 workers, could relocate to the City. If it is conservatively assumed that each of these employees forms a single new household in the City (in residential units outside of the Overlay Zone area), these households could add approximately 2,749 additional residents to the City (585 worker households x 4.7 persons per household for areas in the City outside of the Overlay Zone). The direct increase in population of 11,102 people that would be associated with the Overlay Zone residential units and the potential indirect increase in population of 2,749 people associated with the new employment opportunities generated by the Overlay Zone would result in a total population increase of approximately 13,851 people in the City. As noted above, this assumes that none of the new employees would reside in the new residential units within the Overlay Zone area. Based on the population projections, the projected population growth in Santa Ana between 2005 and 2030 is approximately 16,905 persons. The total direct and indirect population growth estimated to be associated with the project —approximately 13,851 people —will not result in growth exceeding this projection but is considered substantial in relation to the level of forecasted population growth. The increased population and housing resulting from new development do not necessarily cause direct adverse physical environmental effects; however, indirect physical environmental effects such as population -driven traffic or air quality impacts could occur. These indirect physical environmental effects associated with population increases are analyzed in the relevant technical sections of this EIR. Although the housing units under the Overlay Zone were not accounted for in the City and SCAG regional growth projections, implementation of the Overlay Zone is consistent with the overall intent of the City's goals to provide adequate housing opportunities to meet its "fair share" of projected housing needs. In essence, implementation of the Overlay Zone would allow the City to Cabrillo Town Center City of Santa Ana Technical Memorandum August 2023 City Council 18 — 607 10/3/2023