Item 18 - Appeal Application Nos. 2023-02 and 2023-03 for Cabrillo Town Center project

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The California Department of Water Resources report on climate change and effects on the State Water Project (SWP), the Central Valley Project, and the Sacramento -San Joaquin Delta, concludes that "climate change will likely have a significant effect on California's future water resources ... [and] future water demand." It also reports that "much uncertainty about future water demand [remains], especially [for] those aspects of future demand that will be directly affected by climate change and warming. While climate change is expected to continue through at least the end of this century, the magnitude and, in some cases, the nature of future changes is uncertain."17 It also reports that the relationship between climate change and its potential effect on water demand is not well understood, but "[i]t is unlikely that this level of uncertainty will diminish significantly in the foreseeable future." Still, changes in water supply are expected to occur, and many regional studies have shown that large changes in the reliability of water yields from reservoirs could result from only small changes in inflows.18 In its Fifth Assessment Report, the IPCC states "Changes in the global water cycle in response to the warming over the 21st century will not be uniform. The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, although there may be regional exceptions."19 Hydrology and Sea Level Rise. As discussed above, climate change could potentially affect: the amount of snowfall, rainfall, and snow pack; the intensity and frequency of storms; flood hydrographs (flash floods, rain or snow events, coincidental high tide, and high runoff events); sea level rise and coastal flooding; coastal erosion; and the potential for salt water intrusion. Sea level rise can be a product of global warming through two main processes: expansion of seawater as the oceans warm, and melting of ice over land. A rise in sea levels could result in coastal flooding and erosion and could jeopardize California's water supply. Increased storm intensity and frequency could affect the ability of flood -control facilities, including levees, to handle storm events. Agriculture. California has a $30 billion agricultural industry that produces half the country's fruits and vegetables. Higher CO2 levels can stimulate plant production and increase plant water -use efficiency. However, if temperatures rise and drier conditions prevail, water demand could increase; crop -yield could be threatened by a less reliable water supply; and greater ozone pollution could render plants more susceptible to pest and disease outbreaks. In addition, temperature increases could change the time of year certain crops, such as wine grapes, bloom or ripen, and thus affect their quality.20 Ecosystems and Wildlife. Increases in global temperatures and the potential resulting changes in weather patterns could have ecological effects on a global and local scale. Increasing concentrations of GHGs are likely to accelerate the rate of climate change. Scientists expect that the average global 17 California Department of Water Resources Climate Change Report, Progress on Incorporating Climate Change into Planning and Management of California's Water Resources, July 2006, page 2-54, https://water.ca.gov/LegacyFiles/climatechange/docs/CCprogress_nov06.pdf. Accessed April 2020 18 California Department of Water Resources Climate Change Report, Progress on Incorporating Climate Change into Planning and Management of California's Water Resources, July 2006, page 2-75, https://water.ca.gov/LegacyFiles/climatechange/docs/CCprogress_nov06.pdf. Accessed April 2020 19 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fifth Assessment Report, Summary for Policy Makers, 2013, page 20. 20 California Climate Change Center, Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California, 2006, https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/our-changing-climate-assessing-risks-california. Accessed April 2020. Cabrillo Town Center Project PAGE 5 City of Santa Ana Greenhoutl VS ouncil Report 18 — 970 10/3/2023 July 2023