Item 28 - Public Hearing - ZOA No. 20204-01 South Coast Technology Center

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South Coast Technology Center Project CEQA Exemption 15183 4.14 Population and Housing 4.14.1 GPU PER Findings The GPU PER concluded that full buildout of the General Plan Update would result in a population of 431,629 and the City's 2045 population growth would be approximately 20 percent greater than the Orange County Council of Government (COG) 2045 population projections for the City. Furthermore, it is anticipated that General Plan Update buildout would result in 115,053 dwelling units, which exceeds the Orange County COG's housing projections for the City by 38 percent. The GPU PER stated that development based on the General Plan Update's land use designations would result in a jobs -housing ratio of 1.5, which is lower than the City's existing ratio (2.0) and the ratio projected by Orange County COG (2.1). A ratio of 1.5 would bring the City closer to a more equal distribution of employment and housing. Thus, the GPU PER determined the population growth resulting directly from the proposed GPU would be offset by the increase of employment opportunities provided to the City's residents and workers commuting into Santa Ana. The GPU PER concluded that impacts related to unplanned population growth are considered potentially significant. However, there are no feasible mitigation measures to mitigate the population and housing growth anticipated for the buildout of the General Plan Update. Thus, impacts related to a substantial increase in unplanned population growth were determined to be significant and unavoidable. According to the GPU PER, the General Plan Update would change the land use designations of 839.7 acres of existing nonresidential land uses to residential uses. Thus, the General Plan Update would provide for additional residential opportunities in areas that currently do not allow residential uses. As such, the General Plan Update would not displace people and/or housing and no impacts would occur. 4.14.2 Project Analysis The Project proposes to demolish three office buildings to construct three new industrial buildings for office, manufacturing, and/or warehouse use. Once constructed, the three new industrial buildings would total 313,244 square feet and would generate 425 employees based on estimates provided by the Project applicant. It is anticipated that some of the workforce would be filled by individuals who live in the City, as 20 percent of residents who live in Santa Ana also work in the City,37 or nearby, as 65 percent of residents work in Orange County," thus not inducing substantial population growth. A portion of the workforce could also be drawn from individuals who relocate closer to the Project Site. However, even assuming that all 425 individuals would relocate to the City or neighboring cities, the potential growth associated with operation of the proposed Project in the opening year of 2026 would only constitute 0.005 percent of employment growth when compared to the SCAG region, which has a projected employment of 9,373,688 for 2026.31 Therefore, the Project would not directly or indirectly result in substantial unplanned population growth. Moreover, as the proposed Project would provide additional jobs in the City, it would improve the jobs -housing ratio determined in the GPU PER and help offset residential 37 Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG), Local Profiles Report, Profile of the City of Santa Ana, May 2019, https://scag.ca.gov/sites/main/files/file-attachments/santaana localprofile.pdf?1606012682, accessed June 5, 2024. 38 SCAG, Local Profiles Report, Profile of Orange County, May 2019, https://scag.ca.gov/sites/main/files/file- attachments/orangecountylp. pdf?1606012194, accessed June 5, 2024 39 According to Table 3.1, Comparing 30 Years of Growth: Past and Future, of Connect SoCal 2024, the SCAG region has a projected employment of 9,855,000 in 2035. The employment growth projection for 2026 is based on a straight line interpolation from 2019 to 2035. July 2024 Page 87