Item 08 - Ballot Measure Polling Results

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N I T I A L B A L L O T T E S T The primary research objective of this survey was to estimate voters' support for renewing the Measure X sales tax at the current 1.5 cent rate to fund general city services, such as fire protec- tion, paramedic, and 911 emergency response, crime prevention, graffiti removal, addressing homelessness, and keeping streets, sidewalks, parks and public facilities safe, clean, and well - maintained. To this end, Question 5 was designed to take an early assessment of voters' support for the proposed measure. The motivation for placing Question 5 near the front of the survey is twofold. First, voter support for a measure can often depend on the amount of information they have about a measure. At this point in the survey, the respondent has not been provided information about the proposed measure beyond what is presented in the ballot language. This situation is analogous to a voter casting a ballot with limited knowledge about the measure, such as what might occur in the absence of an effective campaign. Question 5, also known as the Initial Ballot Test, is thus a good measure of voter support for the proposed measure as it is today, on the natural. Because the Initial Ballot Test provides a gauge of natural support for the measure, it also serves a second purpose in that it provides a useful baseline from which to judge the impact of various informa- tion items conveyed later in the survey on voter support for the measure. Question 5 Next year, voters in Santa Ana may be asked to vote on a local ballot measure. Let me read you a summary of the measure. To maintain funding for city services, such as fire pro- tection, paramedic, and 911 emergency response; crime prevention; graffiti removal; addressing homelessness; and keeping streets, sidewalks, parks and public facilities safe, clean, and well - maintained; shall City of Santa Ana's ordinance renewing the existing 1.5 cent sales tax be adopted at the current rate (no increase), providing approximately 84 million dollars annually for city services until ended by voters, with independent audits, citizen oversight, and all money locally controlled? If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure? FIGURE 8 INITIAL BALLOT TEST Prefer not to answer Not sure 1.9 9.9 Definitely nc 1 3.4 Probably nc 11.0 Probably yes 32.9 Figure 8 presents the results of the Initial Ballot Test among all respondents. Overall, 64% of likely November 2026 voters surveyed indi- cated that they would support the proposed ?finitelyyes Measure X renewal, whereas 24% stated that 30.9 they would oppose the measure and approxi- mately 12% were unsure or unwilling to share their vote choice. For general taxes in Califor- nia, the level of support recorded at the Initial Ballot Test is approximately 14 percentage points above the simple majority (50%+1) required for passage. City of Santa Ana True North Research, Inc. © 2025