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,~ssocration ojErrs~ironntenta! Professionals 2012 CEQr1 Guidelines {d) In evaluating the significance of ilte environmental effect of a project, the Lead Agency shall consider direct plrysical changes in the ettvir•ortment which may be caused by the project and reasonably foreseeable indirect plrysical changes in the environment which may be caused by the project. (1) A direct physical cltange in the ettvironrttent is a physical change in the environment which is caused by and immediately related to the project. E;~amples of direct physical changes in the environment at•e the dust, noise, and traffic of heavy equipment that would result from construction of a selvage treatrttent plant and possible odors from operation of the plant. {2) An indirect physical cltange in the environment is a physical change in the environment which is not immediately related to the project, but which is caused indirectly by the project. If a direct physical cltange in the environment in turn causes another change in the environment, then the outer change is an indirect physical change in the environment. For example, the construction of a rtew sewage treatment plant Wray facilitate population growth in the service area due to the increase in sewage treatment capacity and may lead to an increase in air pollution. (3) An indirect physical change is to be considered only if that change is a reasonably foreseeable impact which may be caused by the project. A change which is speculative or unlikely to occur is not reasonably foreseeable. (e) Econornic and social changes resulting from a project shall not be treated as significant effects on the environment. Economic or social changes may be used, however, to determine that a physical change shall be regarded as a significant effect on the ertvironmertt. Where a physical change is caused by economic or social effects of a project, the physical change [tray be regarded as a significant effect in the saute tttattrter as arty other plrysical change resulting fi•otn the project. Alternatively, economic and social effects of a physical change may be used to determine that the physical cltange is a significant effect on the environment. If the physical cltange causes adverse econantic or social effects on people, those adverse effects may be used as a factor in determining whether the physical change is significant. l?or example, if a project would cause overcrowding of a public facility and the overcrowding causes an adverse effect on people, the overcrowding would be regarded as a significant effect. (~ The decision as to whether a project may have one or more significant effects shall be based on substantial evidence in the record of the lead agency. {1) If the lead agency determines there is substantial evidence in the record that the project may have a significant effect on the environrttent, the lead agency shall prepare an EIR (Friends of I3 S!t•eet v. City of Ha}~rt~at'd (1980} 106 Ca1.App,3d 988). Said another way, if a lead agency is presented with a fair arguatent that a project may have a significant effect on the envirorunent, the lead agency shall prepare an EIR even though it may also 6e presented with other substantial evidence that the project will not have a significant effect {No Oil, I~rc. v. Cil}~ of Los Angeles (1974) 13 Cal.3d 68). (2} If the lead agency determines there is substantial evidence in the record that the project may have a significant effect on the ertvironrnent brrt the lead agency determines that revisions in the project plans or proposals made by, or agreed to by, the applicant would avoid the effects or mitigate the effects to a point where clearly rto signifcant effect an the environment would occtn• and there is no substantial evidence in light of the whole record before the public agency that the project, as revised, may have a significant effect on the environment then a mitigated negative declaration shall be prepared. {3) If the lead agency determines there is rto substantial evidence that the project may have a significant effect ort the envirortrnent, the lead agency shall prepare a negative declaration (Friends ofB Street tr. Cit}~ of Ilayrvard {1950) 106 Ca1,App. 3d 988). Page 2 of 2