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Santa Ana Redhill Development
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<br />Prepared for: City of Santa Ana
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<br />AECOM
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<br />estimates for employees at buildout of pipeline uses from numerous sources that track economic and employment
<br />trends in various land uses (office, retail, industrial, and hotel).
<br />Estimated workday spending per employee data from estimates by the International Council of Shopping Centers’
<br />Research Department was applied to the total number of employees.
<br />In the subsequent step, AECOM estimated Project retail demand capture rates of employee expenditures within a ½-
<br />mile radius and within a 2-mile radius based on reasonable assumptions of spending of the types of retail
<br />establishments likely to occupy the space as outlined in the Project development program.
<br />Table 13: Retail Expenditures - Hotels
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<br />Estimates from hotel guest expenditures were also estimated. AECOM estimates that hotel guests could generate
<br />approximately $1.2 million in total expenditures under current conditions and $1.4 million at buildout that c ould be
<br />captured by Project retail at buildout of land uses in the current pipeline.
<br />CBRE includes the Project in the Orange County Airport sub-market that spans the adjacent areas of Santa Ana,
<br />Irvine, and Tustin. The 2018 CBRE report estimates that hotel occupancy for this sub-market averaged 76% with 1.35
<br />guests per room night.
<br />Staybridge Suites is the only hotel project in the current pipeline, but developments in the Tustin Legacy Specific Plan
<br />or the Irvine Business Complex Community Development could add more hotel rooms to the inventory in the future.
<br />Because those are not included in the pipeline and not expected to be built in the near future, they have not been
<br />included in this analysis.
<br />Table 14: Retail Expenditures Total
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<br />The estimated capturable expenditures from residential, employee, and visitors were then combined to establish a
<br />reasonable estimate of total estimated expenditure capture by Project retail and supportable retail space. AECOM
<br />estimates that Project retail could capture an estimate of approximately $26.8 million in retail expenditures under
<br />current conditions and $32.3 million at buildout of land uses in the current pipeline.
<br />A range of $350-$425 of retail sales per SF was utilized to establish an approximate range of retail space at the
<br />Project.
<br />AECOM estimates that the Project could capture sufficient residential, employee, and visitor spending to support
<br />between 65,000-80,000 SF of new retail space under current conditions and between 80,000 -96,000 SF at buildout of
<br />uses currently in the pipeline.
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<br />Current Buildout**Current Buildout**Current Buildout**
<br />Hotel Guest (average per night)125 298 3,066 3,066 3,191 3,364
<br />Average Annual Spending/Guest***$13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000 $13,000
<br />Total Annual Guest Spending $1,630,000 $3,880,000 $39,850,000 $39,850,000 $41,500,000 $43,750,000
<br />Site Capture (%)10%10%2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%
<br />Total Estimated Hotel Guest Sales Capture $163,000 $388,000 $995,000 $995,000 $1,160,000 $1,385,000
<br />*2 Mile Radius is exclusive of 1/2 Mile Radius to avoid double counting. Numbers are rounded and may not sum.
<br />**Assumes stable occupancy of Staybridge Suites
<br />***Based on CBRE 2018 data for occupancy.
<br />Source: Costar, CBRE, AECOM
<br />1/2 Mile Radius 2 Mile Radius*Total
<br />Estimated Bowery Capture of Hotel Guest Retail Expenditures
<br />Current Buildout**Current Buildout**Current Buildout**
<br />Total Estimated HH Expenditures Capture 0 $3,525,000 $11,980,000 $12,250,000 $11,980,000 $15,680,000
<br />Total Estimated Employee Expenditures Capture $2,460,000 $3,455,000 $11,230,000 $11,780,000 $13,690,000 $15,235,000
<br />Total Estimated Hotel Guest Sales Capture $163,000 $388,000 $995,000 $995,000 $1,160,000 $1,385,000
<br />Total Estimated Retail Demand Capture $2,620,000 $7,260,000 $23,610,000 $27,480,000 $26,830,000 $32,300,000
<br />Supportable Retail SF ($350/SF)7,800 22,000 71,000 75,000 80,000 96,000
<br />Supportable Retail SF ($425/SF)6,500 18,000 58,000 62,000 65,000 80,000
<br />***Supportable Retail SF has been grossed up to account for a 5% structural vacancy.
<br />*2 Mile Radius is exclusive of 1/2 Mile Radius to avoid double counting. Numbers are rounded and may not sum.
<br />**Assumes stable occupancy of The Heritage, Bowery, Flight, Staybridge Suits and all known current pipeline.
<br />Source: ESRI, BLS, LEHD, Costar, California DOF, ICSC, AECOM
<br />Estimated Bowery Capture of Household, Employee and Hotel Guest Retail Expenditures
<br />1/2 Mile Radius 2 Mile Radius*Total
<br />3-250
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