Item 08 - Ballot Measure Polling Results

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As expected, voters generally responded to the negative arguments with a reduction in their sup- port for the sales tax measure when compared with the levels recorded at the Interim Ballot Test. However, the general trend over the course of the entire survey (Initial to Final Ballot Test) was one of stability, averaging -1 % overall. Support for the proposed sales tax measure at the Final Ballot Test (63%) remained 1 3% above the simple majority (50%+1) required for passage. Whereas Table 6 displays changes in support for the measure over the course of the interview at the subgroup level, Table 7 displays the individual -level changes that occurred between the Ini- tial and Final Ballot tests for the measure. On the left side of the table is shown each of the response options to the Initial Ballot Test and the percentage of respondents in each group. The cells in the body of the table depict movement within each response group (row) based on the information provided throughout the course of the survey as recorded by the Final Ballot Test. For example, in the first row we see that of the 30.9% of respondents who indicated that they would definitely support the measure at the Initial Ballot Test, 23.7% also indicated they would definitely support the measure at the Final Ballot Test. Approximately 5.5% moved to the proba- bly support group, 1.2% moved to the probably oppose group, 0.4% moved to the definitely oppose group, and 0.1 % stated they were now unsure of their vote choice. To ease interpretation of the table, the cells are color coded. Red shaded cells indicate declining support, green shaded cells indicate increasing support, whereas white cells indicate no move- ment. Moreover, within the cells, a white font indicates a fundamental change in the vote: from yes to no, no to yes, or not sure to either yes or no. TABLE 7 MOVEMENT BETWEEN INITIAL & FINAL BALLOT TEST Final Ballot Test (Q1 1 ) Definitely Probably Probably Definitely Initial Ballot Test (Q5) support support oppose oppose Not sure Definitely support 30.9% 23.7% 5.5% '. Probably support 32.9% 6.69/6 21.8% Probably oppose 1 1.0% 7.0% Definitely oppose 1 3.4% 2.1% 10.7% Not sure 1 1 .8% 7.4% As one might expect, the information conveyed in the survey had the greatest impact on individ- uals who either weren't sure about how they would vote at the Initial Ballot Test or were tentative in their vote choice (probably yes or probably no). Moreover, Table 7 makes clear that although the information did impact some voters, it did not do so in a consistent way for all respondents. Some respondents found the information conveyed during the course of the interview to be a reason to become more supportive of the measure, whereas a similar percentage found the same information to be a reason to be less supportive. Despite 14% of respondents making a fundamenta14 shift in their opinion about the measure over the course of the interview, the net impact is that support for the measure at the Final Ballot Test (63%) was just one percentage point different than support at the Initial Ballot Test (64%). 4. This is, they changed from a position of support, opposition, or undecided at the Initial Ballot Test to a dif- ferent position at the Final Ballot Test. City of Santa Ana True North Research, Inc. © 2025